Library · Short Excursions · Probability

Appeasing the Cherry Blossom Horde

A geometric-probability puzzle by Xavier Durawa: a random chord across a circle intersects a diameter; given that intersection, what is the expected ratio of the shorter segment of the diameter to the longer?

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By the sine rule, the ratio is sin⁡α/sin⁡β\sin\alpha / \sin\beta where α<β\alpha < \beta are uniform on [0,π/2][0, \pi/2]. Conditioning on α<β\alpha < \beta and integrating gives 8π2ln⁡2≈0.5618\tfrac{8}{\pi^2} \ln 2 \approx 0.5618, matched by a million-sample Monte Carlo simulation at 0.56190.5619. Full derivation and code in the PDF.

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