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Vamshi Jandhyala

Mathematics

Running Total of a Die

Roll a fair six-sided die until the running total first exceeds 12. What is the most likely final total?

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Two approaches. Monte Carlo gives 13 at roughly 28%. The analytic approach uses integer partitions: the number of ways to reach each total with parts 6\leq 6 and penultimate sum 12\leq 12. Comparing p(13,6)p(13,6) to i=812p(i,6)\sum_{i=8}^{12} p(i,6) shows Pr[13]28%\Pr[13] \approx 28\% exceeds Pr[14]24%\Pr[14] \approx 24\%. Full code in the PDF.


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